Governor Perry, please visit the real world soon

I received a letter from Governor Perry's office a few days ago. I had previously sent e-mails and logged phone calls with his office asking him to veto HB1 and HB3. (Unfortunately, he signed both of these bills into law in May.) I think this letter was an attempt to mollify the disgust I displayed in my communications with his office. The letter lists several bulleted reasons why his "School Finance Reform" package is a good thing. If you listen to conservative talk radio in Houston you've probably heard a political ad from Rick Perry's campaign with Mr. Perry listing (supposed) accomplishments during the special session (and there's a companion television ad. This letter is the long, drawn-out companion to that ad. Here's the second bullet point from the Governor's letter:

• 33 percent reduction in school taxes: For example, in Harris County, the owner of an average-priced home will see a property tax reduction of more than $2,000 over the next three years.

Boy, that sounds great, doesn't it? I'd certainly like $2,000 back in my pocket. The problem is I'll never see this $2,000 because this claim is (and this is a technical term here) a lie from the pit of hell. Here's Rick Casey in the Houston Chronicle:

In Harris County, the average appraisal of a home is $140,578, says Guy Griscom, assistant chief appraiser for the Harris County Appraisal District. But the latest average sales price for the Houston area is $190,800.

The reason, explained Griscom, is that older houses at the low end of the price spectrum don't tend to sell. New homes, mostly priced between $200,000 and $250,000, make up a large portion of sales, he said.

"They're not building a lot of low-end housing," he said.

You can understand Gov. Perry's unfamiliarity with this notion. He doesn't get together much with people who live in the kind of houses that don't sell.

Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn said at a press conference the governor's numbers are nonsense. The average tax cut the first year will be just $52, or enough "to buy one more Coca-Cola out of a vending machine each week," she predicted at a press conference.

But Strayhorn is running against Perry for governor, so let's look at the figures of a non-candidate: Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt.

He's even more pessimistic.

Bettencourt projects an average savings of a miniscule $23 next year, less than $2 a month, or about the tax increase on two packs of cigarettes.

The next year, Bettencourt predicts an average savings of another $268.

To reach these figures, Bettencourt factors in two real-world factors that Perry does not.

The first is that this year's average appraisal is up nearly 7 percent, which will eat up part of the tax savings. He figures next year's average will rise another 7 percent.

Bettencourt also expects school districts to raise their tax rates 4 cents the first year. It is a reasonable expectation.

The new law not only allows districts to enact that raise, it encourages them to do so.

Under the law, that amount of raise is not covered by "Robin Hood." Property-rich school districts can raise their rates that much without sending money off to poorer districts.

And if poorer districts raise their rates that much, the state will match the raise with state funds.

Most boards will take advantage of this provision, especially since any hike above that will require approval by the voters.

Also, did you notice that the Governor tried to use a Harris County example? And did you notice how the Tax Collector for Harris County, Paul Bettencourt, shot down his argument? People outside of Harris County are beginning to notice.

Governor Perry, the people advising you are morons. Please exit your Austin bubble for a while and see what reality has to offer. One thing's for sure: reality does not have $2,000 waiting for me over the next three years.